What Does Fastest Mean?

IAAF rules for 100 m sprinting do not recognise a record time if the wind assistance exceeds 2 m/s (a very gentle breeze), and flag it as altitude assisted if run at a location above 1000 m altitude.

How far should this recognition of the assistance or hindrance of wind and altitude be taken ? When events are timed to 0.01 second precision, could records and outcomes be determined by climatic conditions, or other chance events ? Is it fair to equate a time for 100 m race where the athlete had a 2m/s tailwind with one run into a 2 m/s headwind ? If not, how can events run in different climatic conditions be compared ?

Physicist Jonas Mureika Ph D has proposed an approximate model for adjusting times to account for the wind and altitude variables. He has posted a list of best sub 9.90 second performances on the sub-10 discussion forum to serve as an example for how performance might be more fairly compared.

Do Mureika's methods produce results that make more sense than the alternative of ignoring wind and altitude assistance within the wide-span accepted presently by the IAAF ?

Scientific comparison of top 100m performances
Author: JRM, May/13/2003 20:43:40 [+01]

JRM posted the following comparison of the best recent 100m times on the Sports and Recreation Sub10 Discussion Forum (now defunct, and not capture in internet archive, was http://on.starblvd.net/meet/Sports_and_Recreation/Sports/sub10/) .

JRM includes Ben Johnson - arguing that there are probably other drug-affected performances that haven't been and won't be expunged from the record books.

The table highlights the element of lucky wind in Tim Montgomery's world record. At least on the basis of JRM's assessment, Maurice Greene's performances are superior.

All Time Best 100 m

Figure 1 below is a scatter diagram showing the full list of sub-10 second electronically timed runs (all-time best list from IAAF's site as published May 24th 2003). The scatter of the wind and altitude corrected performances is also plotted:

The scatter diagram plots a magenta + against the date and time an IAAF recognised sub-10 second performance was recorded. There is also a green x plotted for the corresponding equivalent sea-level still wind time (i.e. altitude and wind corrected).

A magenta line connects the official world record marks. The green line connects the best-ever sea-level still wind equivalent performances.

Figure 1 shows World Records for Leroy Burrell in 91, Carl Lewis in 91, and Donovan Bailey in 96 have only been achieved with the assistance of wind and altitude.

After correcting for wind-and-alititude:

1. Maurice Greene's 99 world records would stand. Every other world record had wind assistance that ranks it inferior to the best wind-corrected run of the time.
2. Burrell's 94 run would have been a "wind-and-altitude" corrected world record.
3. Fredericks in 96 and Ato Boldon in 98 would also have rated as world records.
4. Calvin Smith's 3rd Jul 83 altitude wind assisted 9.93 world record would not stand, but his 10.04 into 2.2 m headwind on 25th Aug 83 (at Bruxelles) would rate as a record (corrected to 9.90)
5. Viktor Bryzgin's 1986 run of 10.03 secs into a 2.5m headwind would have been a world record.
   Until 2004, some statisticians had categorized the wind reading for this run as doubtful. But the IAAF records list published Dec 2003 has it as legal. It looks no more or less suspicious than Smith's run
6. Leroy Burrell's 91, Carl Lewis' 91 and Carl Lewis '88 world records would not stand
7. Tim Montgomery's 2002 world record would not make the grade.

The sudden plunge in the world record line around 1991 is often attributed to the introduction of the Mondo synthetic tracks. But after correcting for the wind and altitude, there is not such an obvious effect - the plunge doesn't happen until Maurice Greene hits his straps in 99.

The general pattern in Figure 1 shows that correcting for wind and altitude results in an upwards shift in times (green x are mostly above corresponding magenta +). Figure 1 also shows that most elite performances occur in the Northern hemisphere summer and autumn. A strong increase in sub-10 second runs can also be seen in Figure 1 - but note that until 1995 the top-10 runs in any year were not all under 10 seconds.

Data Table

The data Figure 1 is based on is also presented in Table 2 below and agrees with the list posted by JRM.

The data shows all runs officially timed at under 10 seconds with a legal wind as published on IAAF web site at 20/12/2003. Ben Johnson's performances have been excluded (as per IAAF site). Viktor Bryzgin's 10.03 in 1986, Donovan Bailey's 10.03 in 1997 and Calvin Smith's 1983 10.04, all into strong headwinds, have been included here because they adjust to times under 10 seconds.

In Table 2, the Raw Rank column is the rank as per the IAAF statistics, using the officially clocked times. Wind is in meters/sec, with positive value assisting the athlete. The Adjusted Time and Adj Rank columns show times corrected for wind and altitude using Mureika's back-of-the-envelope formula. The Up column shows how many places up the ranking a performance is lifted by the adjustment (negative values occur typcially where high assisting winds result in a fall after adjustment). The Record Type column shows a W for a world record performance, and an A if the adjusted time would have been a world record (for either W or A, the whole row is emphasised in bold font).

Also shown below is table 3 with the best 20 performances for each year from 1998 to 2002. One of the outstanding features of this recent data is Maurice Greene's domination of the 100 m event in recent years.

Table 2 - Wind & Altitude Adjusted All-Time Best 100 m Rankings

Adjusted Time	Name	Venue	Date	Raw Time	Wind	Raw Rank	Adj Rank	Up	Record Type
9.80	Maurice Greene	Athína	16 06 1999	9.79	0.1	2	1	1	W&A
9.81	Maurice Greene	Sevilla	22 08 1999	9.8	0.2	3	2	1
9.83	Maurice Greene	Edmonton	05 08 2001	9.82	-0.2	4	3	1
9.84	Ato Boldon	Athína	17 06 1998	9.86	-0.4	11	4	7	A
9.85	Maurice Greene	Berlin	01 09 2000	9.86	-0.2	12	5	7
9.85	Bruny Surin	Sevilla	22 08 1999	9.84	0.2	5	6	-1
9.85	Maurice Greene	Sydney	23 09 2000	9.87	-0.3	19	7	12
9.86	Frank Fredericks	Lausanne	03 07 1996	9.86	-0.4	13	8	5	A
9.86	Tim Montgomery	Edmonton	05 08 2001	9.85	-0.2	8	9	-1
9.87	Viktor Bryzgin	Leningrad	07 06 1986	10.03	-2.5	286	10	276	A
9.87	Ato Boldon	Athína	16 06 1999	9.86	0.1	14	11	3
9.87	Maurice Greene	Athína	03 08 1997	9.86	0.2	15	12	3
9.88	Ato Boldon	Kuala Lumpur	17 09 1998	9.88	-0.1	26	13	13
9.88	Tim Montgomery	Paris	14 09 2002	9.78	2	1	14	-13	W
9.89	Maurice Greene	Osaka	13 05 2000	9.91	-0.4	46	15	31
9.89	Leroy Burrell	Barcelona	01 08 1992	9.97	-1.3	159	16	143	A
9.89	Donovan Bailey	Atlanta, GA	27 07 1996	9.84	0.7	6	17	-11	W
9.89	Donovan Bailey	Abbotsford	19 07 1997	10.03	-2.1	287	18	269
9.89	Maurice Greene	Athína	11 06 2001	9.91	-0.3	47	19	28
9.90	Maurice Greene	Roma	07 07 1999	9.85	0.8	9	20	-11
9.90	Calvin Smith	Bruxelles	26 08 1983	10.04	-2.2	294	21	273	A
9.90	Maurice Greene	Uniondale, NY	21 07 1998	9.96	-1	129	22	107
9.90	Maurice Greene	Sevilla	21 08 1999	9.91	-0.2	48	23	25
9.90	Michael Marsh	Walnut, CA	18 04 1992	9.93	-0.6	70	24	46
9.90	Linford Christie	Stuttgart	15 08 1993	9.87	0.3	20	25	-5
9.90	Maurice Greene	Zürich	11 08 2000	9.94	-1	87	26	61
9.90	Maurice Greene	Edmonton	04 08 2001	9.88	0	27	27	0
9.90	Ato Boldon	Lausanne	02 07 1999	9.86	0.4	16	28	-12
9.90	Ato Boldon	Atlanta, GA	27 07 1996	9.93	-0.6	71	29	42
9.91	Maurice Greene	Stockholm	30 07 1999	9.87	0.6	21	30	-9
9.91	Frank Fredericks	Athína	17 06 1998	9.93	-0.4	72	31	41
9.91	Frank Fredericks	Bruxelles	22 08 1997	9.9	0.2	34	32	2
9.92	Ato Boldon	Stuttgart	13 07 1997	9.9	0	35	33	2
9.92	Maurice Greene	Sevilla	22 08 1999	9.96	-0.7	130	34	96
9.92	Maurice Greene	Stockholm	05 08 1998	9.9	0.3	36	35	1
9.92	Obadele Thompson	Johannesburg	11 09 1998	9.87	-0.2	22	36	-14
9.92	Frank Fredericks	Atlanta, GA	27 07 1996	9.94	-0.5	88	37	51
9.92	Maurice Greene	Indianapolis, IN	13 06 1997	9.9	0.2	37	38	-1
9.92	Maurice Greene	Eugene, OR	21 06 2001	9.9	0.3	38	39	-1
9.92	Tim Montgomery	Zürich	16 08 2002	9.98	-1.3	198	40	158
9.92	Donovan Bailey	Athína	03 08 1997	9.91	0.2	49	41	8
9.92	Maurice Greene	Bruxelles	28 08 1998	9.94	-0.3	89	42	47
9.93	Carl Lewis	Tokyo	25 08 1991	9.86	1.2	17	43	-26	W
9.93	Maurice Greene	Lausanne	25 08 1998	9.92	-0.3	56	44	12
9.93	Tim Montgomery	Bruxelles	30 08 2002	9.91	0.3	50	45	5
9.93	Davidson Ezinwa	Walnut, CA	18 04 1992	9.96	-0.6	131	46	85
9.93	Maurice Greene	Athína	03 08 1997	9.9	0.5	39	47	-8
9.93	Donovan Bailey	Lausanne	03 07 1996	9.93	-0.4	73	48	25
9.93	Tim Montgomery	Zürich	17 08 2001	9.9	0.2	40	49	-9
9.93	Obadele Thompso	Zürich	11 08 2000	9.97	-1	160	50	110
9.93	Maurice Greene	London	22 07 2001	9.98	-0.8	199	51	148
9.93	Leroy Burrell	Lausanne	06 07 1994	9.85	1.2	10	52	-42	W
9.93	Maurice Greene	Bruxelles	22 08 1997	9.92	0.2	57	53	4
9.94	Maurice Greene	London	07 08 1999	9.97	-0.6	161	54	107
9.94	Ato Boldon	Modesto, CA	10 05 1997	9.89	0.8	30	55	-25
9.94	Maurice Greene	Paris	06 07 2001	9.96	-0.4	132	56	76
9.94	Frank Fredericks	Atlanta, GA	27 07 1996	9.89	0.7	31	57	-26
9.94	Bruny Surin	Sevilla	21 08 1999	9.95	-0.2	111	58	53
9.94	Tim Montgomery	Indianapolis, IN	13 06 1997	9.92	0.2	58	59	-1
9.94	Ato Boldon	Lausanne	03 07 1996	9.94	-0.4	90	60	30
9.94	Maurice Greene	Roma	12 07 2002	9.89	0.9	32	61	-29
9.94	Bruny Surin	Sevilla	22 08 1999	9.96	-0.3	133	62	71
9.94	Ato Boldon	Atlanta, GA	26 07 1996	9.95	-0.3	112	63	49
9.94	Tim Montgomery	Edmonton	04 08 2001	9.92	0	59	64	-5
9.94	Ato Boldon	Athína	02 08 1997	9.87	1.3	23	65	-42
9.95	Seun Ogunkoya	Zürich	12 08 1998	9.96	-0.6	134	66	68
9.95	Leroy Burrell	Tokyo	25 08 1991	9.88	1.2	28	67	-39
9.95	Maurice Greene	Berlin	01 09 1998	9.94	0.1	91	68	23
9.95	Seun Ogunkoya	Dakar	19 08 1998	9.94	0.1	92	69	23
9.95	Maurice Greene	Sacramento	14 07 2000	9.93	0.3	74	70	4
9.95	Donovan Bailey	Köln	24 08 1997	9.99	-0.7	225	71	154
9.95	Ato Boldon	Atlanta, GA	27 07 1996	9.9	0.7	41	72	-31
9.95	Tim Montgomery	Oslo	13 07 2001	9.84	2	7	73	-66
9.95	Jon Drummond	Berlin	01 09 2000	9.96	-0.2	135	74	61
9.95	Andre Cason	Stuttgart	15 08 1993	9.92	0.3	60	75	-15
9.95	Bernard Williams	Edmonton	05 08 2001	9.94	-0.2	93	76	17
9.95	Tim Montgomery	Athína	03 08 1997	9.94	0.2	94	77	17
9.95	Tim Montgomery	Bruxelles	22 08 1997	9.94	0.2	95	78	17
9.95	Maurice Greene	Osaka	12 05 2001	9.96	-0.1	136	79	57
9.95	Ato Boldon	Athína	11 06 2001	9.97	-0.3	162	80	82
9.96	Donovan Bailey	Luzern	27 06 2000	9.98	-0.7	200	81	119
9.96	Frank Fredericks	Kuala Lumpur	17 09 1998	9.96	-0.1	137	82	55
9.96	Ato Boldon	WALNUT, CA	19 04 1998	9.86	1.8	18	83	-65
9.96	Ato Boldon	Monaco	08 08 1998	9.92	0.7	61	84	-23
9.96	Frank Fredericks	Zürich	13 08 1997	9.98	-0.7	201	85	116
9.96	Maurice Greene	Sydney	28 02 1998	9.99	-0.5	226	86	140
9.96	Maurice Greene	Athína	10 06 2002	9.97	-0.2	163	87	76
9.96	Davidson Ezinwa	Linz	04 07 1994	9.94	0.2	96	88	8
9.96	Frank Fredericks	Athína	03 08 1997	9.93	0.5	75	89	-14
9.96	Dwain Chambers	München	07 08 2002	9.96	-0.3	138	90	48
9.96	Ato Boldon	Kuala Lumpur	17 09 1998	9.96	0	139	91	48
9.96	Tim Montgomery	Bruxelles	24 08 2001	9.96	0	140	92	48
9.96	Frank Fredericks	Athína	03 08 1997	9.95	0.2	113	93	20
9.97	Ato Boldon	Athína	16 06 1999	9.97	-0.1	164	94	70
9.97	Ato Boldon	Eugene, OR	01 06 1996	9.92	0.8	62	95	-33
9.97	Frank Fredericks	Oslo	09 07 1998	9.95	0.2	114	96	18
9.97	Seun Ogunkoya	Johannesburg	11 09 1998	9.92	-0.2	63	97	-34
9.97	Andre Cason	Stuttgart	14 08 1993	9.96	-0.1	141	98	43
9.97	Maurice Greene	Zürich	11 08 1999	9.99	-0.7	227	99	128
9.97	Maurice Greene	Zürich	13 08 1997	9.99	-0.7	228	100	128
9.97	Frank Fredericks	Helsinki	25 06 1996	9.87	1.9	24	101	-77
9.97	Andre Cason	Stuttgart	15 08 1993	9.94	0.3	97	102	-5
9.97	Frank Fredericks	Roma	14 07 1998	9.97	0	165	103	62
9.97	Ato Boldon	Sydney	23 09 2000	9.99	-0.3	229	104	125
9.97	Bruny Surin	Montréal	01 08 1998	9.89	1.5	33	105	-72
9.97	Bernard Williams	Edmonton	04 08 2001	9.95	0	115	106	9
9.97	Dennis Mitchell	Durham, NC	13 08 1994	9.94	0.5	98	107	-9
9.97	Jon Drummond	Indianapolis, IN	12 06 1997	9.92	0.8	64	108	-44
9.97	Maurice Greene	Athína	02 08 1997	9.9	1.3	42	109	-67
9.97	Melvin Lattany	Athens, GA	05 05 1984	9.96	0.1	142	110	32
9.97	Maurice Greene	Lausanne	02 07 1999	9.93	0.4	76	111	-35
9.97	Maurice Greene	Lausanne	02 07 1997	9.9	1	43	112	-69
9.98	Maurice Greene	Monaco	19 07 2002	9.97	0.1	166	113	53
9.98	Dwain Chambers	Paris	14 09 2002	9.87	2	25	114	-89
9.98	Dennis Mitchell	Tokyo	25 08 1991	9.91	1.2	51	115	-64
9.98	Frank Fredericks	Dakar	19 08 1998	9.97	0.1	167	116	51
9.98	Bruny Surin	Athína	16 06 1999	9.97	0.1	168	117	51
9.98	Maurice Greene	Oslo	09 07 1998	9.96	0.2	143	118	25
9.98	Donovan Bailey	Nürnberg	13 06 1997	9.94	0.5	99	119	-20
9.98	Ato Boldon	Stockholm	05 08 1998	9.96	0.3	144	120	24
9.98	Maurice Greene	Lausanne	04 07 2001	9.9	1.1	44	121	-77
9.98	Bernard Williams	Eugene, OR	21 06 2001	9.96	0.3	145	122	23
9.98	Donovan Bailey	Montréal	21 06 1996	9.98	0	202	123	79
9.98	Dwain Chambers	Sevilla	22 08 1999	9.97	0.2	169	124	45
9.98	Jon Drummond	Atlanta, GA	14 06 1996	9.99	-0.3	230	125	105
9.98	Frank Fredericks	Kuala Lumpur	17 09 1998	9.98	0	203	126	77
9.98	Donovan Bailey	Montréal	15 07 1995	9.91	1.3	52	127	-75
9.98	Leroy Burrell	Lausanne	10 07 1991	9.96	0	146	128	18
9.98	Carl Lewis	Seoul	24 09 1988	9.92	1.1	65	129	-64	W
9.98	Jon Drummond	Atlanta, GA	15 06 1996	9.98	-0.1	204	130	74
9.99	Frank Fredericks	Lausanne	02 07 1997	9.91	1	53	131	-78
9.99	Ato Boldon	Stockholm	07 07 1997	9.95	0.6	116	132	-16
9.99	Leroy Burrell	Houston, TX	16 06 1989	9.94	0.8	100	133	-33
9.99	Linford Christie	Tokyo	25 08 1991	9.92	1.2	66	134	-68
9.99	Carl Lewis	Roma	30 08 1987	9.93	1	77	135	-58
9.99	Jon Drummond	Berlin	01 09 1998	9.98	0.1	205	136	69
9.99	Frank Fredericks	Windhoek	13 04 2002	9.94	-0.2	101	137	-36
9.99	Tim Harden	Luzern	05 07 1999	9.92	1	67	138	-71
9.99	Dennis Mitchell	Atlanta, GA	15 06 1996	9.92	1.1	68	139	-71
9.99	Bruny Surin	Nürnberg	13 06 1999	9.92	1.1	69	140	-71
9.99	Ato Boldon	Oslo	13 07 2001	9.88	2	29	141	-112
9.99	Frank Fredericks	Villeneuve-d'Ascq	29 06 1997	9.95	0.7	117	142	-25
9.99	Dennis Mitchell	Linz	04 07 1994	9.97	0.2	170	143	27
9.99	Ato Boldon	Roma	14 07 1998	9.99	0	231	144	87
9.99	Ato Boldon	Edmonton	05 08 2001	9.98	-0.2	206	145	61
9.99	Carl Lewis	Indianapolis, IN	15 07 1988	9.96	0.4	147	146	1
9.99	Tim Montgomery	Roma	12 07 2002	9.94	0.9	102	147	-45
9.99	Donovan Bailey	Vancouver	18 05 1997	9.99	0	232	148	84
9.99	Dwain Chambers	Edmonton	04 08 2001	9.97	0	171	149	22
9.99	Mark Lewis-Francis	Edmonton	04 08 2001	9.97	0	172	150	22
9.99	Dennis Mitchell	Milano	07 09 1996	9.91	1.5	54	151	-97
9.99	Maurice Greene	New Orleans, LA	19 06 1998	9.96	0.6	148	152	-4
10.00	Deji Aliu	Abuja	12 10 2003	9.95	0.6	118	153	-35
10.00	Bernard Williams	Monaco	19 07 2002	9.99	0.1	233	154	79
10.00	Obadele Thompson	Stockholm	30 07 1999	9.96	0.6	149	155	-6
10.00	Vincent Henderson	Leverkusen	09 08 1998	9.95	0.8	119	156	-37
10.00	Ato Boldon	Berlin	01 09 1998	9.99	0.1	234	157	77
10.00	Steve Riddick	Zürich	20 08 1975	10.05	-1.2	304	158	146	A
10.00	Frank Fredericks	Atlanta, GA	26 07 1996	9.93	1.1	78	159	-81
10.00	Donovan Bailey	Monaco	08 08 1998	9.96	0.7	150	160	-10
10.00	Kim Collins	Manchester	27 07 2002	9.98	0.2	207	161	46
10.00	Davidson Ezinwa	Linz	04 07 1994	9.98	0.2	208	162	46
10.00	Leroy Burrell	Villeneuve-d'Ascq	29 06 1990	9.96	0.7	151	163	-12
10.00	Leroy Burrell	New York, NY	14 06 1991	9.9	1.9	45	164	-119	W
10.00	Dwain Chambers	Edmonton	05 08 2001	9.99	-0.2	235	165	70
10.00	Carl Lewis	Los Angeles, CA	04 08 1984	9.99	0.2	236	166	70
10.00	Leroy Burrell	Tokyo	25 08 1991	9.94	1.1	103	167	-64
10.00	Carl Lewis	Tokyo	25 08 1991	9.93	1.3	79	168	-89
10.01	Ato Boldon	WALNUT, CA	21 04 1996	9.93	1.3	80	169	-89
10.01	Carl Lewis	Seoul	24 09 1988	9.97	0.6	173	170	3
10.01	Carl Lewis	Zürich	17 08 1988	9.93	1.1	81	171	-90
10.01	Coby Miller	Durham, NC	02 06 2000	9.98	0.4	209	172	37
10.01	Frank Fredericks	Berlin	26 08 1997	9.99	0.3	237	173	64
10.01	Dwain Chambers	London	23 08 2002	9.98	0.5	210	174	36
10.01	Darrel Brown	Paris	24 08 2003	10.01	0	274	175	99
10.01	Maurice Greene	Roma	30 06 2000	9.97	0.7	174	176	-2
10.01	Daniel Effiong	Stuttgart	15 08 1993	9.98	0.3	211	177	34
10.01	Linford Christie	Victoria, B.C.	23 08 1994	9.91	1.9	55	178	-123
10.01	Frank Fredericks	Saint-Denis	03 06 1996	9.95	1.1	120	179	-59
10.01	Frank Fredericks	Sydney	20 02 1999	9.94	1.3	104	180	-76
10.01	Tim Montgomery	Monaco	16 08 1997	9.99	0.4	238	181	57
10.01	Donovan Bailey	Montréal	01 08 1998	9.93	1.5	82	182	-100
10.01	Kareem Streete -Thompson	Indianapolis, IN	12 06 1997	9.96	0.8	152	183	-31
10.01	Maurice Greene	Paris	05 07 2002	9.99	0.4	239	184	55
10.01	Tim Montgomery	Pretoria	12 04 2002	9.94	0.6	105	185	-80
10.02	Uchenna Emedolu	Abuja	12 10 2003	9.97	0.6	175	186	-11
10.02	Francis Obikwelu	Berlin	31 08 2001	9.98	0.6	212	187	25
10.02	Linford Christie	Barcelona	01 08 1992	9.96	1	153	188	-35
10.02	Maurice Greene	Carson, CA	01 06 2003	9.94	1.4	106	189	-83
10.02	Frank Fredericks	Tokyo	25 08 1991	9.95	1.2	121	190	-69
10.02	Bernard Williams	Durham, NC	02 06 2000	9.99	0.4	240	191	49
10.02	Brian Lewis	Cayenne	04 05 2002	9.99	0.5	241	192	49
10.02	Frank Fredericks	Athína	02 08 1997	9.99	0.5	242	193	49
10.02	Dennis Mitchell	Stuttgart	15 08 1993	9.99	0.3	243	194	49
10.02	Dennis Mitchell	Stockholm	12 07 1994	9.97	0.9	176	195	-19
10.02	Dennis Mitchell	Atlanta, GA	15 06 1996	9.98	0.6	213	196	17
10.02	Jon Drummond	Durham, NC	13 08 1994	9.99	0.5	244	197	47
10.03	Jason Gardener	Lausanne	02 07 1999	9.98	0.4	214	198	16
10.03	Ato Boldon	Lausanne	05 07 2000	9.95	1	122	199	-77
10.03	Matthew Shirvington	Kuala Lumpur	17 09 1998	10.03	-0.1	288	200	88
10.03	Michael Marsh	WALNUT, CA	21 04 1996	9.95	1.3	123	201	-78
10.03	Patrick Johnson	Mito	05 05 2003	9.93	1.8	83	202	-119
10.03	Donovan Bailey	Göteborg	06 08 1995	9.97	1	177	203	-26
10.03	Raymond Stewart	Tokyo	25 08 1991	9.96	1.2	154	204	-50
10.03	Maurice Greene	Palo Alto, CA	21 06 2002	9.99	0.7	245	205	40
10.03	Raymond Stewart	Waco, TX	20 05 1989	9.97	1	178	206	-28
10.03	Tim Montgomery	Zürich	16 08 2002	9.93	1.6	84	207	-123
10.03	Carl Lewis	New York, NY	14 06 1991	9.93	1.9	85	208	-123
10.03	Linford Christie	Stuttgart	15 08 1993	9.97	0.9	179	209	-30
10.03	Linford Christie	Johannesburg	23 09 1995	9.97	0.1	180	210	-30
10.03	Linford Christie	Seoul	24 09 1988	9.97	1.1	181	211	-30
10.04	Donovan Bailey	Milano	07 09 1996	9.95	1.5	124	212	-88
10.04	Jim Hines	Ciudad de México	14 10 1968	9.95	0.3	125	213	-88	W
10.04	Shawn Crawford	Osaka	11 05 2002	9.94	1.8	107	214	-107
10.04	Frank Fredericks	Johannesburg	27 03 1998	9.96	0.4	155	215	-60
10.04	Frank Fredericks	Kingston, JAM	19 09 1997	9.97	1.2	182	216	-34
10.04	Ato Boldon	Stuttgart	06 06 1999	9.97	1	183	217	-34
10.04	Dennis Mitchell	Atlanta, GA	27 07 1996	9.99	0.7	246	218	28
10.04	Dwain Chambers	Zürich	16 08 2002	9.94	1.6	108	219	-111
10.04	Jon Drummond	New Orleans, LA	19 06 1998	9.94	1.9	109	220	-111
10.04	Olapade Adeniken	Austin, TX	04 04 1992	9.97	1.2	184	221	-37
10.04	Donovan Bailey	Baton Rouge, LA	22 04 1995	9.99	0.9	247	222	25
10.04	Bruny Surin	Montréal	15 06 1995	9.97	1.3	185	223	-38
10.05	Innocent Asonze	Enugu	26 04 1997	10.04	0	295	224	71
10.05	Donovan Bailey	Lausanne	02 07 1997	9.97	1	186	225	-39
10.05	Francis Obikwelu	Lausanne	05 07 2000	9.97	1	187	226	-39
10.05	Dennis Mitchell	Oslo	22 07 1994	9.94	1.9	110	227	-117
10.05	Jeff Williams	Atlanta, GA	14 06 1996	10.02	0.3	278	228	50
10.05	Frank Fredericks	Villeneuve-d'Ascq	25 05 1996	9.99	1	248	229	19
10.05	Tim Montgomery	Osaka	11 05 2002	9.95	1.8	126	230	-104
10.05	Calvin Smith	Zürich	17 08 1988	9.97	1.1	188	231	-43
10.05	Leonard Myles-Mills	Johannesburg	15 09 1999	9.99	0	249	232	17
10.05	Maurice Greene	Indianapolis, IN	12 06 1997	9.96	1.5	156	233	-77
10.05	Joshua J. Johnson	Walnut, CA	21 04 2002	9.95	1.8	127	234	-107
10.05	Seun Ogunkoya	Formia	13 07 1997	9.97	1.5	189	235	-46
10.05	Dennis Mitchell	Tokyo	25 08 1991	9.99	1.1	250	236	14
10.05	Linford Christie	Tokyo	25 08 1991	9.99	1.1	251	237	14
10.05	Calvin Smith	Colorado Springs, CO	03 07 1983	9.93	1.4	86	238	-152	W
10.05	Carl Lewis	Modesto, CA	14 05 1983	9.97	1.5	190	239	-49
10.05	Tim Montgomery	Indianapolis, IN	12 06 1997	9.96	1.6	157	240	-83
10.05	Calvin Smith	Seoul	24 09 1988	9.99	1.1	252	241	11
10.06	Hasely Crawford	Montréal	24 07 1976	10.06	-0.1	310	242	68
10.06	Jeff Laynes	Tempe, AZ	06 04 1996	10.01	0.6	275	243	32
10.06	Joe DeLoach	Eugene, OR	04 06 1988	10.03	0.4	289	244	45
10.06	John Capel	Zürich	15 08 2003	9.97	1.3	191	245	-54
10.06	Justin Gatlin	Zürich	15 08 2003	9.97	1.3	192	246	-54
10.06	Chidi Imoh	Berlin	15 08 1986	10	1	268	247	21
10.06	Carl Lewis	Zürich	22 08 1984	9.99	0.9	253	248	5
10.06	Coby Miller	Portland	18 05 2002	9.98	1.4	215	249	-34
10.06	Percival Spencer	Kingston	20 06 1997	9.98	1.4	216	250	-34
10.06	Tim Montgomery	Athína	02 08 1997	9.99	1.2	254	251	3
10.06	Dwain Chambers	Nürnberg	13 06 1999	9.99	1.1	255	252	3
10.06	Daniel Sangouma	Villeneuve-d'Ascq	29 06 1990	10.02	0.7	279	253	26
10.06	Silvio Leonard	Guadalajara	11 08 1977	9.98	0.6	217	254	-37
10.06	Darren Campbell	Budapest	19 08 1998	10.04	0.3	296	255	41
10.06	Carl Lewis	Houston, TX	06 05 1984	9.99	1.3	256	256	0
10.07	Sunday Emmanuel	Enugu	26 04 1997	10.06	0	311	257	54
10.07	Shawn Crawford	Pretoria	12 04 2002	9.99	0.6	257	258	-1
10.07	Olapade Adeniken	Austin, TX	05 06 1992	9.97	1.7	193	259	-66
10.07	Asafa Powell	Bruxelles	05 09 2003	10.02	0.8	280	260	20
10.07	Carl Lewis	Modesto, CA	11 05 1985	9.98	1.6	218	261	-43
10.07	Emmit King	Tampa, FL	17 06 1988	10.04	0.5	297	262	35
10.07	Carl Lewis	Seoul	23 09 1988	9.99	1.4	258	263	-5
10.07	Ato Boldon	Lausanne	04 07 2001	9.99	1.1	259	264	-5
10.07	Eric Nkansah	Nürnberg	13 06 1999	10	1.1	269	265	4
10.07	Daniel Effiong	Odessa, TX	21 05 1993	9.99	1	260	266	-6
10.07	Calvin Smith	Zürich	24 08 1983	9.97	1.6	194	267	-73
10.07	Aziz Zakari	Linz	20 08 2001	10.04	0.4	298	268	30
10.07	Terrence Trammell	Durham, NC	02 06 2000	10.04	0.5	299	269	30
10.07	Andre Cason	Knoxville, TN	15 06 1994	9.98	1.6	219	270	-51
10.08	Davidson Ezinwa	Lausanne	06 07 1994	9.99	1.2	261	271	-10
10.08	Dennis Mitchell	Lausanne	06 07 1994	9.99	1.2	262	272	-10
10.08	Andre Cason	Koblenz	11 09 1991	9.99	1.5	263	273	-10
10.08	Vladislav Dologodi	Kyiv	17 05 1996	10.02	0.9	281	274	7
10.08	Jon Drummond	Paris	14 09 2002	9.97	2	195	275	-80
10.08	Linford Christie	Victoria, B.C.	23 08 1994	9.98	1.8	220	276	-56
10.08	Andrés Simón	La Habana	01 08 1987	10.06	0.3	312	277	35
10.08	Frank Fredericks	Athína	17 06 1998	9.97	2	196	278	-82
10.08	James Sanford	Westwood, CA	11 05 1980	10.02	1	282	279	3
10.08	Olapade Adeniken	El Paso, TX	16 04 1994	9.95	1.9	128	280	-152
10.08	Kim Collins	Zürich	16 08 2002	9.98	1.6	221	281	-60
10.08	Jon Drummond	Rieti	28 08 1994	9.99	1.5	264	282	-18
10.08	Michael Marsh	Indianapolis, IN	12 06 1997	9.97	2	197	283	-86
10.09	Leroy Burrell	Sestriere	08 08 1990	9.96	1.2	158	284	-126
10.09	Kostyantyn Rurak	Kyiv	17 05 1996	10.03	0.9	290	285	5
10.09	Mickey Grimes	Zürich	15 08 2003	9.99	1.5	265	286	-21
10.09	Kim Collins	Paris	14 09 2002	9.98	2	222	287	-65
10.09	Leonard Myles-Mills	Boise	05 06 1999	9.98	1.6	223	288	-65
10.09	Francis Obikwelu	Braga	21 06 2000	9.98	2	224	289	-65
10.10	Jon Drummond	Oslo	22 07 1994	9.99	1.9	266	290	-24
10.10	Darvis Patton	Zürich	15 08 2003	10	1.5	270	291	-21
10.10	Bernard Williams	Oslo	13 07 2001	9.99	2	267	292	-25
10.10	Nicolas Macrozonaris	Ciudad de México	03 05 2003	10.03	0	291	293	-2
10.10	Koji Ito	Bangkok	13 12 1998	10	1.9	271	294	-23
10.11	Christopher Williams	Kingston, JAM	21 07 2000	10.05	1	305	295	10
10.11	Marian Woronin	Warszawa	09 06 1984	10	2	272	296	-24
10.12	André Domingos	Bogota	25 06 1999	10.06	0.9	313	297	16
10.12	Michael Green	Knoxville, TN	11 04 1997	10.02	1.7	283	298	-15
10.12	Pietro Mennea	Ciudad de México	04 09 1979	10.01	0.9	276	299	-23
10.12	Bob Hayes	Tokyo	15 10 1964	10.06	1.1	314	300	14
10.13	Lennox Miller	Ciudad de México	14 10 1968	10.04	0.3	300	301	-1
10.13	Shingo Suetsugu	Mito	05 05 2003	10.03	1.8	292	302	-10
10.13	Leonard Scott	Eugene, OR	31 05 2001	10.05	1.4	306	303	3
10.13	Nobuharu Asahara	Oslo	13 07 2001	10.02	2	284	304	-20
10.13	Patrick Williams	Modesto, CA	05 05 1990	10.06	1.3	315	305	10
10.14	Kenny Brokenburr	Indianapolis, IN	12 06 1997	10.04	1.6	301	306	-5
10.14	Osmond Ezinwa	Milano	07 09 1996	10.05	1.5	307	307	0
10.14	Mark Whiterspoon	San Jose, CA	27 06 1987	10.04	1.8	302	308	-6
10.14	Robson Caetano da Silva	Ciudad de México	22 07 1988	10	1.6	273	309	-36
10.14	Bode Osagiobare	El Paso, TX	16 04 1994	10.01	1.9	277	310	-33
10.14	Jonathan Carter	New Orleans, LA	19 06 1998	10.04	1.9	303	311	-8
10.15	Harvey Glance	Tampa, FL	30 03 1985	10.05	1.8	308	312	-4
10.16	Terrrance Bowen	Fresno, CA	01 04 1995	10.06	1.7	316	313	3
10.16	Tony McCall	Durham, NC	08 04 2000	10.06	1.8	317	314	3
10.16	Ron Brown	Zürich	24 08 1983	10.06	1.6	318	315	3
10.16	Kaaron Conwright	Flagstaff, AZ	08 07 2000	10.05	1	309	316	-7
10.16	Stanley Floyd	Provo, UT	05 06 1982	10.03	1.9	293	317	-24
10.17	Frank Emmelman	Berlin	22 09 1985	10.06	1.9	319	318	1
10.17	Charles Greene	Ciudad de México	13 10 1968	10.02	2	285	319	-34
10.18	Rodney Lewis	Knoxville, TN	15 06 1994	10.06	2	320	320	0
10.19	Leandro Peñalver	Caracas	24 08 1983	10.06	2	321	321	0
10.21	Johan Rossouw	Johannesburg	23 04 1988	10.06	2	322	322	0

There is a clear bias in Table 2 towards tailwinds - 75% of runs have a tailwind, with the average wind measurement being 0.65m/s tailwind (standard deviation is 0.8 m/s, 50% of runs have above 0.5 m/s wind assist). There is a similar bias in the altitude - average is 314 m (standard deviation 417 m, 50% of runs are above 110m altitude). All the precision in the timing clocks is not matched by precision in other important determinants of performance.

---

Annual Top 100 m

Table 3 below gives the top 10 and top 20 performances for each of the last six years, including a count of how many times each athlete appears in the top 20 of that year. This count shows how dominant each individual was in a particular year. In many cases, the dominant performer benefits from the adjustment for performances in difficult climatic conditioins (his bad times weren't his off-days, but rather off-days for the weather or location).

In all, there are 21 instances (5 in 2003 alone), where the correction for Wind and Altitude lifts a performance into the top 10, and 25 where a performance is lifted into the top 20 (5 just in 2003).

The adjusted rankings also puts Tim Montgomery's world record into context. It was clearly the best performance of the year, but with a maximum legal tailwind of 2 m/s it neither matches his nor Maurice Greene's best from the previous year.

Trending Annual Average Top Performances

Former Canadian track coach Charlie Francis suggested it may be more relevant to base predictions of 100 m performances on averages of the top 10 and top 20 performances for each year since 91

was "http://www.charliefrancis.com/community/viewthread.php?tid=1483", now inaccessible -Charlie Francis discussion forum topic "9.48 in 500 years"

Table 3 shows the top 20 performances each year from 1998 to 2003, corrected for wind and altitude. Graphs of trends in this and similar data for 1992 to 2003 are then presented:

Table 3 - Wind & Altitude Adjusted Yearly Top 10 & 20 100 m Performances

100m Sprint Prediction considers trends in world record times over the period 1912 - 2002, and suggests a limit is being reached in the performance improvements possible in the 100 m sprint. Over that time period, technology and training methods have changed considerably. Would focussing on a shorter time-frame tell anything different ?

Even looking at just 10 years still includes some uncontrollable variation - particularly in relation to the impact of tighter drug testing. Nevertheless, the trend of the top 10 and top 20 averages is revealing:

Taking optimists data at face value, there is a suggestion of almost a bottoming-out of the averages of the best performances around 1996 to 1998. A fit of three models is presented to test what is happening: a straight line, a logistic curve, and a quadratic curve.

Statistically, the straight line fit is not particularly good (correlation coefficient of 0.245) for the Average of the Top 10 performances. The Mean Square Error is approximately 0.020 seconds - or 28% of the difference between the maximum and minimum values. Similarly poor correlation and MSE is also evident in the Top 20 averages. The straight line reaches an average time of zero seconds in 1850 years - and although that's a long time away, such a prediction is clearly flawed.

A logistic equation is a marginally better fit (correlation coefficient of 0.343), and suggests the Top 10 average is trending down to a limit of 9.88 seconds. "Marginally" means there is a 42% chance that the straight line is correct (odds are only slightly towards the logistic equation fit).

The notable one-sided errors since 1998 suggests a u-shaped trend may describe the situation better. Statistical observations are one thing, but it's nice to support them with some further explanation of the underlying process.

What happened in 1998 that could explain the up-turn ? Perhaps the sentinel event was the revelation of widespread EPO doping by cyclists in the 1998 Tour-De-France, after customs officials discovered large quantities in support team luggage. After the huge embarassment from adverse publicity over this, a crackdown on EPO and other drug abuse was kicked off - culminating in the formation of the World Anti-Doping Agency. Initiatives such as out-of-competition testing of athletes were gradually introduced. Even though EPO is thought to be beneficial mostly in endurance events (rather than short-duration sprinting), the crackdown included steroids and many other agents used to avoid detection of banned substances. It's not hard to see there might be a causal relationship between restrictions on drug use and poorer sprint performances.

Changes to the break-rule and further extensions of out-of-competition drug-testing could exacerbate such an upward trend in the future. To test if a u-shape trend is occurring, a quadratic fit was also tried - and is marginally better than the logistic (marginally: there is a 39% chance the logistic is correct compared to quadratic).

The quadratic fit, however, produces unpleasing results if projected back or forward in time (and a cubic polynomial fit is even more unrealistic outside the 1991-2002 interval, even though it has the best statistical fit):

If data prior to 1990 were available, a fit that might allow better discrimination between the straight line, logistic and quadratic would be possible.

In the absence of more data, it is difficult to conclude from the Top 10 or Top 20 averages that there is or is not a limit to the improvement in 100 m sprinting. There is slightly more than a 50/50 chance that there is a limit (either by interpreting the logistic or quadratic as the better fit).

What can be said confidently is that the trend in the averages for the last 10 years does not contradict the suggestion of a limit shown in the 80 year+ time-frame logistic fit.

Some of the scatter in Figure 2 above can be explained by Wind and Altitude effects on performance. Using IAAF statistics for the last 5 complete years, Figure 4 shows the effect of correcting for wind and altitude to sea-level still wind conditions. The correction used is Jonas Mereika's Back-of-The-Envelope formula

formerly http://desert.jsd.claremont.edu/%7Enewt/track/wind/index.html, but missing from new Mureika website).

This makes it clearer still that there is an upward trend in average times evident from the last 6 years. If you focus on just the last 6 year averages (see Figure 3 below), you might readily believe that 100 m sprint winning times will continue to increase in the near future.

It wouldn't be smart to bet on fast times for the 2004 Athens Olympics.